Handicapping the Golden Globes :: Movies

Is it time for the Golden Globes already? Well, yes. Sunday night Amy Poehler and Tina Fey return to host this award ceremony that's something like Hollywood's annual company picnic. That it is both television and the movies already makes it a more inclusive event; add to it that it takes place in a hotel ballroom with the participants seated at tables and you have a far more casual affair than the stuffier (though more prestigious) Oscars. Though you have to feel bad for those television nominees seated in the back of the room - like Rodney Dangerfield, they never get much respect.

The team of Poehler and Fey have raised the ante up for hosting such events. Unlike Ricky Gervais, who was the bad boy host of these awards for a few years, they can be sharply funny without a smirk. They are so good that they have become the standard with which hosts at such events are measured. No doubt Neil Patrick Harris, who hosts the Oscars next month, will be watching and taking notes.

The Globes divide its major awards into two categories, one for dramas, one for comedies and musicals. Of the former, the big question is whether or not "Selma" - embraced by the media for its searing recreation of this major event in the Civil Rights struggle - will get the momentum that could enhance its Oscar chances. Will the huge success of "Into the Woods" vault it ahead of the favorite "Birdman" as Best Comedy or Musical? And what of the battles of the Brits: Redmayne vs. Cumberbatch, will they cancel each other out and give the award to Michael Keaton?

One factor to be considered in handicapping these awards is that they are chosen by about 90 journalists from some 55 countries. British journalists have a plurality, which often leads some to think that British films, actors and artists get the edge. The winners may also influence the Oscars once the nominations are announced next Thursday.

EDGE editors Jason St. Armand and Robert Nesti offer their choices for this year's awards, beginning with movies. Jason's choices are first, Robert's are second. Feel free to comment:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

JSA:: Boyhood
It's an impressive way of making a movie that's never been done before. It's blown away the critics and looks to be recognized by those honoring films with awards.

RN:: The Imitation Game
This British biographical drama vividly brings to life the tragic story of Alan Turing, the mathematician that nearly single-handedly broke the Nazi's Enigma Code in WWII only to be persecuted for being gay in the early 1950s.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

JSA:: Birdman
The uniqueness of the filmmaking distinguishes this movie; also it received more nominations than any other film, which makes it already a favorite.

RN:: Pride
Certainly an outlier, but Matthew Warchus's terrific fact-based film has both heart and edge, and may be the sleeper in this category. A movie hard not-to-love that the Globe voters may just embrace.

Best Actor - Drama

JSA:: Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game"
The buzz around Cumberbatch has been enormous. Earlier I would have picked Steve Carell, but his stock has been falling as Cumberbatch's has been rising.

RN:: Eddie Redmayne "The Theory of Everything"
It's a tough call, but think Redmayne will take this award over his fellow Brit Cumberbatch for the enormous physical stamina he brings to his portrayal of physicist Stephen Hawkings.

Best Actress - Drama

JSA:: Rosamund Pike "Gone Girl"
It was a tough call between Pike and Reese Witherspoon, but hers is a performance than cannot be denied.

RN:: Julianne Moore "Still Alice"
A Golden Globe favorite (she's won twice before), Moore is at the top of her game as a professor whose life is thrown into turmoil when she is diagnosed with early Alzheimer's disease.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

JSA:: Michael Keaton "Birdman"
Although I wasn't wild about "Birdman," the acting was fabulous. Michael Keaton hasn't had a performance this good in a very long time. And his meta-back story helps.

RN:: Michael Keaton "Birdman"
While there's been some pushback in recent weeks as to Keaton's chances of winning the major film awards, I think he'll squeak the win here for a performance that often seemed to confuse life and art.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

JSA:: Quvenzhane Wallis "Annie"
In a weak category, I give it to the kid who made "Annie" watchable.

RN:: Emily Blunt "Into the Woods"
The Baker's Wife is the emotional heart and soul to this sometimes snarky, sometimes sentimental Sondheim musical; and she captures it beautifully.

Best Supporting Actor

JSA:: J.K. Simmons "Whiplash"
In a fiery performance, this relatively unknown actor leaves a major impression. Who knew that an insurance television pitchman would have such acting chops?

RN:: Edward Norton "Birdman"
As the preening Broadway actor recruited to save a play in "Birdman," Norton is sharp as a tack. Self-involvement has never been this funny.

Best Supporting Actress

JSA:: Meryl Streep "Into the Woods"
Any time Ms. Streep is up for an acting honor, she'll take it home (at least lately). Plus who can deny her singing witch?

RN:: Keira Knightley "The Imitation Game"
Knightley brought a fiery passion to the codebreaker who helped Alan Turing break the Enigma code in "The Imitation Game" and deserves this honor in a crowded field.

Best Director

JSA:: Alejandro Gonz�lez I��rritu "Birdman"
This was a really hard category. Anyone of them can bring this home. Especially close is Linklater, but think "Birdman" has the edge.

RN:: Alejandro Gonz�lez I��rritu "Birdman"
Ava DuVernay has been trending for her fine work in "Selma," but think I��rritu will win for the breathtaking finesse he brought to his surrealistic backstage comedy.

Best Screenplay

JSA:: Gillian Flynn "Gone Girl"
Great source material given new life by its author on screen. Wouldn't be the same movie without her adaptation.

RN:: Wes Anderson "The Great Budapest Hotel"
His style may be too twee for some, but his homage to a vanished culture is exquisitely written and directed. He won't win for direction, but could pull an upset in this category.

Best Score

JSA:: Hans Zimmer "Interstellar"
In its consolation prize, "Interstellar" scores with score. Plus Hans Zimmer remains one of Hollywood's best composers who got some of his best reviews for this Christopher Nolan movie.

RN:: Antonio Sanchez "Birdman"
Antonio Sanchez's seemingly improvised percussive accompaniment to this loopy backstage dramedy is an inspired component to the film's success. That it is being snubbed for an Oscar is another reason why he will likely take this honor.

Best Song

JSA:: Lana Del Rey - Big Eyes from "Big Eyes"
Since she didn't get any nods for "Young and Beautiful" (from "The Great Gatsby"), word is that she'll get the nod for this lesser song as an apology. But Lana's still Lana.

RN:: John Legend & Common - Glory from "Selma"
This may be the only award that "Selma" will get this evening. Sorry Lana.

Best Animated Film

JSA:: The Lego Movie
It was a tough call between this film and "How To Train a Dragon 2," but this was the most appealing of the nominees. It has a great look with many funny moments.

RN:: The Lego Movie
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, the duo behind the "Jump Street" movies hit box office and critical gold with this funny, beautifully animated satire for both kids and adults.

Best Foreign Film

JSA:: Force Majeure
This critically acclaimed drama examines the nature of bravery and cowardice in the context of a contemporary marriage. Thrilling and thought-provoking.

RN:: Ida
A luminous, beautifully acted black-and-white character study of a young woman's spiritual struggle refracted through memories of the Holocaust.